Strengthened Adaptive Capacity Using Interactive Approach Integrative Framework: Science Community with Civil Society

Abstract

Climate change phenomenon brought major uncertainty and stresses to environmental resources. In particular, the coastal ecosystems are customarily considered one of the most complex systems to sustain, experiencing continuous fluctuation and changes by nature, and climate change will only add to this complexity. That fact underscores the necessity of finding effective adaptive methodology governing the coastal system vulnerability while facing climate change impact. This paper argues that sustainability of coastal zones must employ an adaptive policy that incorporates multi-disciplinary regulatory mechanism along with community inputs for better decision support. Through a case study application in a coastal zone North-Eastern of the Nile Delta of Egypt, the hypothesis of having a multi-disciplinary adaptation plan cutting across major sectors, while applying an interactive framework that ensure involvement of communities and stakeholders all along the planning process, proved to lead to strengthened resilience of coastal developments facing climate change impact. Changes in climate in terms of temperatures, precipitation and sea levels are having immediate hydrological alterations that, in turn, have consequences on environmental and socio-economic state. Vulnerability to these potential impacts depends on variations in the capabilities to adapt to and prepare for the changes. With challenges facing policy makers and practitioners concerned with climate change worldwide, this research presents an integrated approach for adaptive capacity assessment to projected climate change and sea level rise in an active coastal area. Adaptive capacity is typically evaluated ecologically with academic perspective, in one hand, and socially in the other. In this research study an interactive methodology has been employed so that adaptive behavior is detected and adjusted during the research process before concluding the final adaptation policy. Various dimensions are dealt with simultaneously, hydrological, environmental, socio- economic and physical responses to climate changes. Earlier studies conducted within the framework of efforts for climate change impact assessment have concluded potential system malfunctionality with reference to predicted Sea Level Rise scenarios. Results showed prospective alterations in terms of advancement of shoreline inland and inundation threats, salinity intrusion into coastal aquifer and raise in groundwater level, and excess discharges into the agricultural drainage network. The paper first presents a review of formal definitions for the adaptive capacity in literature to be employed as reference in analysis. On basis of the study findings, this research highlights certain considerations in assessing adaptive capacity of coastal zone for the area under consideration in the delta. The paper is concluding with recommended measures to be considered for stronger adaptive capacity to climate change. In this context, basic measures should include, beside the physical adaptation measures, preparing civil society, decision makers as well as scientific community with required knowledge and advanced equipment. Most of all, flexibility is an important ingredient to be added to policy planning in order to face the wide range of predictions and continuous alteration in conditions. II. Background Sea Level Rise has been recognized as early as in the mid-19th century. However, during the 20th century, sea level rose about 15-20 centimeters (roughly 1.5 to 2.0 mm/year), with the rate at the end of the century greater than over the early part of the century. Recent increase of rate is depicted to jump to about 3.1 mm/year, which is significantly higher than the average rate for the 20th century (Douglas, 1997 and IPCC, 2007) Alarmed with findings of the worst scenario A1F1 stated in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report and the First National Communication which has reported that over 30% (about third) of the Delta area would be inundated by year 2100 as a result of climate change and sea level rise, extensive studies to assess actual vulnerability degree of the Nile Delta coastal zone have been conducted. While results of the Coastal Research Institute (CoRI) downscaling in the Second National Communication on climate change (SNC) assured different findings and less threat than early findings, yet concerns at certain delta coastal areas have still been valid.