Effects of Climate Variabilityon Cocoa Production in Ondo State, Nigeria

Abstract

There is an increasing awareness that the climate is changing and its changing impact has been significant on agricultural produce. This change is posing a major threat to agricultural development in Nigeria. Cocoa cultivation is one of the major cash crops in Ondo state and also a major agricultural produce which contributes significantly to employment generation and foreign exchange in the country. It has been observed that the production of cocoa over the years has been marked with fluctuations which could be attributed to the change in climate over the years. The objectives of this study include: examining the variation in the trend of cocoa production; and assessing the effects of climate variability on cocoa production for the year under review. This study made use of secondary data which included data on climatic variables (mean annual temperature, mean annual rainfall and mean annual humidity) and cocoa output from 1976-2020. This study employed mainly inferential statistics for data analysis—trend analysis, correlation and regression. Trend analysis was used to examine climatic variables and cocoa production. The correlation analysis was used to show the relationship between the climatic variables and the cocoa yield. Also, regression analysis was used to evaluate the effect of the climatic variables on cocoa production. Trend analysis reveals fluctuations in climatic variables and cocoa output over the years of study. Correlation analysis shows an inverse relationship between rainfall and cocoa output while regression analysis shows that humidity and temperature are expected to increase cocoa output. For a sustainable cocoa production, it is recommended that both governmental and non-governmental organizations should employ more extension agents to guide and enlighten cocoa farmers on climate change, its effects and the appropriate coping strategies.