Abstract
This study examines the effect of climate variability on cocoa production which is the mainstay of the population of Meme Division. Meme Division stands as one of the highest cocoa producing divisions of the Cameroon. Field studies accompanied by the administration of 155 questionnaires (50 each for Kumba and Mbonge Subdivisions and 55 for Konye Subdivision) were employed. Information on climatic variables (temperature and rainfall) and cocoa output for 21 years (1990-2010) was also obtained. The data was analyzed with the use of the four point likert scale survey and the coefficient of variation (CV). The results showed that the CV for rainfall (15.1%) and temperature (11.0%) all exceeded the variability threshold of 10% indicating that they exhibit significant variability. Trend analysis for cocoa output shows that unusual variations were experienced in some years. This was further confirmed by the Jarque-Bera statistics of 0.68 (P- Value = 0.71) which indicates that the output of cocoa is not normally distributed over time. It was also observed that the increasing unpredictability of rainfall and temperatures tend to confuse the cocoa crop and the farmers as their traditional farming calendar have been distorted; no sooner has the cocoa crop been able to adjust with the new climatic scenario than they are confronted with a different pattern. Furthermore, farmers noted a drop in cocoa output per hectare. This has led to a reduction in incomes realised giving rise to limited possibility for expansion. It is seemingly evident that their present adaptation strategies are yet to contain this ugly situation. The study suggests a number of agricultural development planning options which the government and the local population can embark on to develop a resilience framework for cocoa farmers in Meme Division in the face of expected variability in climate.
Highlights
The economy of Cameroon experienced a recession from the mid-1980s to the early 2000s
The data obtained from the questionnaire was analyzed using the four point likert scale survey while secondary data on climatic variables was analysed using the coefficient of variation (CV)
There is strong evidence on the vulnerability of rain fed agriculture to the negative impacts of climate change and variability. Faced with such a complicated scenario which affects the livelihoods of much of the farming populations of Sub-Saharan Africa, there is need for the development of appropriate strategies to reduce the vulnerability of rain fed agriculture
Summary
The economy of Cameroon experienced a recession from the mid-1980s to the early 2000s. It is almost impossible to talk about the socioeconomic life of the inhabitants of Meme Division without making allusion to cocoa farming This cash crop which tolerates the growing of their major staple food crops (plantains, coco yams and cassava) constitute the mainstay of the population of the division. The caprices of weather and climate have, over the years, greatly affected the production of cocoa which is a major cash crop in Meme Division. The highest temperatures are recorded between February and April (peak of the dry season) and the lowest between July and September which is the peak of the rainy season (Meme Divisional Delegation for Agriculture and Rural Development, 2006) These two well defined seasons account for the growing of cocoa which is a tropical crop and thrives well under such rainfall and temperature conditions. Higher temperatures or less than tolerated temperatures in combination with rainfall, form fertile grounds for cocoa pests and diseases
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