Effects of climate change and elevated CO 2 on cropping systems: model predictions at two Italian locations

Abstract

The potential effects of future climate change were investigated, corresponding to a doubling of atmospheric CO 2 from 350 to 700 ppm, on agricultural production of four different cropping systems at two Italian locations, Modena and Foggia. Climate change scenarios, derived from two general circulation models (GCMs), were used as weather input to a soil-plant growth simulator, CropSyst. This model was recently modified to include the effects of elevated CO 2 on crop photosynthesis and transpiration. Six different crops in total were simulated at the two Italian sites. At Modena, a 3-year maize–maize–wheat rotation and a 2-year soybean–barley–summer sorghum rotation were studied. At Foggia, a 2-year sunflower–wheat–fallow rotation, and a 2-year wheat–fallow–spring sorghum rotation were simulated. Results suggested that the combined effects of elevated atmospheric CO 2 and climate change at both sites would depress crop yields if current management practices were not modified. Specifically, predicted warmer air temperatures accelerated plant phenology, reducing dry matter accumulation and crop yields by 10–40%. By investigating adaptation strategies, it was found that a combination of early planting for spring–summer crops and the use of slower-maturing winter cereal cultivars succeeds in maintaining crop yields at current levels at both sites. For irrigated maize and soybean production at Modena, 60–90% more irrigation water was required under climate change to keep grain yields at current levels. This implies that adaptation to climate change may be limited for irrigated crops, depending on site-specific water availability.