Effects of alternative forest management on biomass and species diversity in the face of climate change in the northern Great Lakes region (USA)

Abstract

Northern Great Lakes forests represent an ecotone in the boreal–temperate transition zone and are expected to change dramatically with climate change. Managers are increasingly seeking adaptation strategies to manage these forests. We explored the efficacy of two alternative management scenarios compared with business-as-usual (BAU) management: expanding forest reserves meant to preserve forest identity and increase resistance, and modified silviculture meant to preserve forest function and increase adaptive capacity. Our study landscapes encompassed northeastern Minnesota and northern Lower Michigan, which are predicted to experience significant changes in a future climate and represent a gradient of latitude, forest type, and management. We used the LANDIS-II forest simulation model to simulate forest change under current climate, low emissions climate, and high emissions climate futures. Our results suggest that under a low emissions climate scenario, expanded reserves and modified silviculture strategies can be effective at increasing resistance by preserving forest composition, including legacy species (e.g., balsam fir (Abies balsamea (L.) Mill.)), and increasing adaptive capacity by maintaining or increasing aboveground biomass compared with BAU management. Under a high emissions climate scenario, the expanded reserve strategy was not effective at preserving legacy species; however, the modified silviculture strategy was effective at increasing aboveground biomass compared with BAU management. These results highlight alternative management options and limitations in the face of climate change.