Abstract
Under business as usual (BAU) management, stresses posed by climate change may exceed the ability of Great Lake forests to adapt. Temperature and precipitation projections in the Great Lakes region are expected to change forest tree species composition and productivity. It is unknown how a change in productivity and/or tree species diversity due to climate change will affect the relationship between diversity and productivity. We assessed how forests in two landscapes (i.e., northern lower Michigan and northeastern Minnesota, USA) would respond to climate change and explored the diversity‐productivity relationship under climate change. In addition, we explored how tree species diversity varied across landscapes by soil type, climate, and management. We used a spatially dynamic forest ecosystem model, LANDIS‐II, to simulate BAU forest management under three climate scenarios (current climate, low emissions, and high emissions) in each landscape. We found a positive relationship between diversity and productivity only under a high emissions future as productivity declined. Within landscapes, climate change simulations resulted in the highest diversity in the coolest climate regions and lowest diversity in the warmest climate region in Minnesota and Michigan, respectively. Simulated productivity declined in both landscapes under the high emissions climate scenario as species such as balsam fir (Abies balsamea) declined in abundance. In the Great Lakes region, a high emissions future may decrease forest productivity creating a more positive relationship between diversity and productivity. Maintaining a diversity of tree species may become increasingly important to maintain the adaptive capacity of forests.
Highlights
Over the century, the pace of climate change is projected to exceed the ability of forests to naturally adapt (Soja et al 2007, Iverson et al 2008, Loarie et al 2009, Kuparinen et al 2010, Svenning and Sandel 2013)
We addressed the following questions: (1) With the risk of declining productivity, how might climate change affect the relationship between species diversity and forest productivity? (2) Given the value of biodiversity, how might regional differences in climate change, soil productivity, and forest management affect tree species diversity in the Great Lakes region? (3) Because many ecosystems services— including productivity—are dependent upon tree species and assemblages, we asked how might specific tree species and forest types respond to climate change?
For each Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) plot imputed onto the northern lower Michigan landscape, our evaluation of Aboveground Biomass (AGB) resulted in a Pearson’s correlation between initial LANDIS-II AGB and observed FIA estimated AGB of 0.64
Summary
The pace of climate change is projected to exceed the ability of forests to naturally adapt (Soja et al 2007, Iverson et al 2008, Loarie et al 2009, Kuparinen et al 2010, Svenning and Sandel 2013). Adaptation to climate change may depend on the potential mix of species capable of providing ecosystem services under changing environmental conditions. ‘‘Insurance’’ species are those that may currently occur in low abundance have a response capability (i.e., the ability to provide ecosystem services) beyond the range of environmental tolerances provided by the more dominant species (Naeem and Li 1997, Walker et al 1999) Adaptation to climate change may depend on the potential mix of species capable of providing ecosystem services under changing environmental conditions. ‘‘Insurance’’ species are those that may currently occur in low abundance have a response capability (i.e., the ability to provide ecosystem services) beyond the range of environmental tolerances provided by the more dominant species (Naeem and Li 1997, Walker et al 1999)
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