Effect of environmental regulation policy synergy on carbon emissions in China under consideration of the mediating role of industrial structure

Abstract

A comprehensive understanding of the effect of environmental regulation policy synergy on carbon emissions is essential for the design and decision-making of the other policy combinations. In this paper, the panel data from 30 provinces in China during 2000–2019 are used as samples to investigate the heterogeneity of different policy combinations and compare the differences using a Bayesian non-parametric generalized additive quantile method. The research results imply that the environmental regulation policy synergy has a significant heterogeneous effect on carbon emissions on different levels. Specifically, the effect of environmental regulation policy synergy on carbon emissions has an inverted U-shape trend at the low quintiles, i.e., before the turning point, it shows a “green paradox” effect, and after the turning point, it shows an “emission reduction” effect. However, the effect of environmental regulation policy synergy on carbon emissions shows a significant N-shape trend at the high quintiles, i.e., before the second turning point, it shows an “emission reduction” effect, and after the second turning point, it shows a “green paradox” effect. Moreover, the effect of environmental regulation policy combinations on carbon emissions reduction has been found to vary significantly across regions.