Analyzing driving forces of China's carbon emissions from 1997 to 2040 and the potential emission reduction path: through decomposition and scenario analysis.

Tao Zhao,Ce Song,Juan Wang

doi:10.1007/s10098-021-02240-7

Abstract

Energy and environmental policies are important methods for the government to restrain carbon emissions growth. Identifying the potential dynamic trends of China's carbon emissions under different scenarios has important reference significance for the government's policy implementation. This paper firstly predicted China's carbon emissions from 2017 to 2040 based on three energy transition scenarios at the industrial level. Then, Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index decomposition model was applied to evaluate the driving forces of emissions changes during 1997–2040. Finally, the Spatial–Temporal Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index model was used to explore the emissions reduction potential and the potential reduction path at provincial level. The results showed that (1) as the reduction in energy intensity cannot offset the growth of industrial scale, the carbon emissions of all industries have shown an increasing trend from 1997 to 2017; (2) In the current policies scenario, China's carbon emissions cannot reach the peak before 2040. And only in the sustainable development scenario, the carbon emissions of the three industries will all reach the peaks before 2030. And the development of non-fossil energy will reduce carbon emissions by more than 30%; (3) Hebei, Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Heilongjiang are key provinces and improving energy efficiency of the secondary industry is a potential way to promote carbon emissions reduction.Graphical abstract The framework and main content of this paper.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10098-021-02240-7.

Highlights

As human activities promote global economic growth, related energy consumption has led to a continuous increase in carbon emissions (CEs) (Ikram et al 2021)
The results showed that (1) as the reduction in energy intensity cannot offset the growth of industrial scale, the carbon emissions of all industries have shown an increasing trend from 1997 to 2017; (2) In the current policies scenario, China's carbon emissions cannot reach the peak before 2040
New policies scenario (NPS) reflects the impact of climate and environmental policies on CEs based on these agreements and documents

Summary

Introduction

As human activities promote global economic growth, related energy consumption has led to a continuous increase in carbon emissions (CEs) (Ikram et al 2021). The Chinese government has issued a series of policies aimed at energy consumption transformation and Analyzing driving forces of China’s carbon emissions from 1997 to 2040 and the potential emission. The Chinese government has only proposed some binding indicators for these goals, and the specific policies and action plans are still unclear This raised some questions: What are the characteristics of China's CEs at different stages? As this paper covered main types of primary energy sources including fossil and non-fossil energy, impacts of technological progress and non-fossil energy substitution can be presented This supplemented more detailed information for assessing the potential for future CEs reduction, and provided new evidences for relevant government departments to make decisions.

Literature review

Methodology and data

Results

Evaluation trend of provincial emissions