CO2 emissions in China under electricity substitution: Influencing factors and decoupling effects

Abstract

Over the past years, economic growth has been joined by massive environmental pollution, raising global concerns. It is necessary to break down the elements affecting carbon emissions and decouple CO2 from economic development for the largest emitter China. The LMDI (Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index) model is extended by introducing electricity substitution factors and is then combined with the Tapio decoupling model to investigate the carbon emission drivers and decoupling status. The findings display that (1) the cumulative net additions to China's carbon emissions over the study period is 6532.64 million tonnes. From the ridge regression results, carbon emissions are inverted U-shaped with terminal electrification and negatively correlated with electricity cleanliness. (2) The decoupling state of carbon emissions and economic growth is dominated by weak decoupling, and the decoupling index has been improving, with the optimal strong decoupling state appearing in 2014 ∼ 2015 and 2015–2016. The reduction of energy intensity and the increase in electricity cleanliness drive China towards a strong decoupling state. (3) Carbon intensity, terminal electrification, and electricity cleanliness promote the decoupling of carbon emissions from economic growth, while clean energy intensity, economic growth, and population inhibit decoupling. In particular, economic growth is the primary inhibitor of decoupling, and electricity cleanliness is the major factor facilitating decoupling. The findings show that the increase in electricity cleanliness and the decrease in energy intensity not only reduce carbon emissions but also make a significant contribution to the decoupling of carbon emissions and economic growth. This research provides a reference for other countries to exploit the decomposition and decoupling of carbon emissions under the background of energy substitution.