Effect of Daily Forecasting Frequency on Rolling-Horizon-Based EMS Reducing Electrical Demand Uncertainty in Microgrids

Giuseppe La Tona,Maria Carmela Di Piazza,Massimiliano Luna

doi:10.3390/en14061598

Giuseppe La Tona, Maria Carmela Di Piazza + Show 1 more

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.3390/en14061598

Copy DOI

Journal: Energies	Publication Date: Mar 13, 2021
Citations: 6	License type: CC BY 4.0

Affiliation: Institute of Marine Engineering

Abstract

Accurate forecasting is a crucial task for energy management systems (EMSs) used in microgrids. Despite forecasting models destined to EMSs having been largely investigated, the analysis of criteria for the practical execution of this task, in the framework of an energy management algorithm, has not been properly investigated yet. On such a basis, this paper aims at exploring the effect of daily forecasting frequency on the performance of rolling-horizon EMSs devised to reduce demand uncertainty in microgrids by adhering to a reference planned profile. Specifically, the performance of a sample EMS, where the forecasting task is committed to a nonlinear autoregressive network with exogenous inputs (NARX) artificial neural network (ANN), has been studied under different daily forecasting frequencies, revealing a representative trend relating the forecasting execution frequency in the EMS and the reduction of uncertainty in the electrical demand. On the basis of such a trend, it is possible to establish how often is convenient to repeat the forecasting task for obtaining increasing performance of the EMS. The obtained results have been generalized by extending the analysis to different test scenarios, whose results have been found coherent with the identified trend.

Highlights

The microgrid paradigm has gained interest in the last decade as a promising solution for a progressive decarbonization of the energy mix and a more efficient, flexible, and economic operation of electrical power systems [1]
It is clear that the energy management systems (EMSs) performance in terms of grid-exchangedpower powerprofile profile (GEPP) errors improves with the increase of the daily forecasting frequency
This paper aims at analyzing the effect of daily forecasting frequency on the performance of EMSs used to reduce demand uncertainty in microgrids by adhering to a reference planned profile

Summary

Introduction

The microgrid paradigm has gained interest in the last decade as a promising solution for a progressive decarbonization of the energy mix and a more efficient, flexible, and economic operation of electrical power systems [1]. The recent provisions introduced for the grid-connected renewable generators encourage the consumers to switch from the role of passive energy users to the role of active energy producers; the users contribute with energy supply and ancillary power quality services to the main power grid, according to the concept of the prosumer microgrid, where a prosumer is a user who can both produce and consume the energy [4,5] On such a basis, numerous technical contributions have been proposed in the literature on energy management systems (EMSs) for residential/commercial microgrids encompassing renewable generators and battery storage systems (BSS), with the aim of improving energy efficiency and reducing the energy bill by means of demand response (DR) or alternative optimization-based strategies [6,7,8]. EMSs are considered nowadays a relevant technical solution for the enhancement of the efficiency, reliability, and economy of smart microgrids [12,13,14]

Objectives

Results

Conclusion