Abstract
The systematic treatment of uncertainties associated with forest production processes allows the establishment of technical and managerial strategies to mitigate the risk inherent in the application of capital demanded in the production of cuttings. Therefore, the aim of this research was to ascertain the unit risk to produce Eucalyptus cuttings using the Monte Carlo simulation method. Based on the estimate of the production cost of Eucalyptus cuttings and in the expected revenues of six productive systems, characterized as forestry investment projects, it was possible to construct cash flows followed by the metrics used for the decision of mutually exclusive investment projects. The incorporation of risk analysis had as propositions the uncertainties associated with the productive factors, in which probability distributions were attributed. Then, pseudorandom numbers were generated by the Monte Carlo simulation method, with the purpose of measuring the stochastic economic values and the probabilities of occurrences for the project metrics. The stochastic results showed that the probability of economic viability for the analyzed conditions is null. The most critical stochastic variables of forestry projects are investments and the cycle production of cuttings.
Highlights
The consumption of productive factors, when measured in monetary value applied and mobilized for the forest seedlings production, within an estimated period, that consents in the production cost calculation are considered a premise for the economic evaluation of the forest investment project
When analyzing the production cycle, that is, the number of days required for the cuttings to be considered suitable for planting, the value that occurred most frequently in the data set of the cuttings produced in polyethylene containers was 89 days, which allowed the average production of four cycles per year
From the measurement of direct and indirect costs, that is, the total cost of production (TPC), the value that occurred most frequently for the cuttings produced in 10 mm irrigation depth (D10) polyethylene container was 85.70 United States dollar (USD) k-1 (Table 1), which is the lowest value when compared to other irrigation depths applied
Summary
The consumption of productive factors, when measured in monetary value applied and mobilized for the forest seedlings production, within an estimated period, that consents in the production cost calculation are considered a premise for the economic evaluation of the forest investment project. In practical terms, when exploring packages that require monetary expenditures and distinct technical and environmental characteristics for the Eucalyptus seedlings production with acceptable growth and quality, associated with the reduction of production costs and, adding value from forest companies, there are associated uncertainties to the forest investment project. In this perspective, among the options available in the market, the polyethylene container stands out, which is still widely used. A container was developed from a cellulosic cylindrical-shape composite, which has a natural process of FLORESTA, Curitiba, PR, v. 51, n. 2, p. 263-271, abril/jun 2021
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