Abstract
Background: Experts in ecological restoration have discussed the cost reduction to make forest restoration financially feasible. This is very important in developing countries, such as Brazil, and for smallholder farmers; however, economic studies do not usually consider the uncertainties in their analysis. Therefore, this study aimed to analyze, under conditions of uncertainty, how tropical tree seedlings produced in polyethylene bags, polyethylene tubes, and biodegradable containers (Ellepot®) interfere with the costs of implementation and post-planting maintenance investment projects in a deforested tropical seasonal forest area in southern Brazil. Methods: We evaluated total costs, production costs, and equivalent annual uniform costs, and the probability distributions and estimated ranges of stochastic values were adjusted through Monte Carlo method simulation. Furthermore, the seedling survival rate was recorded over 12 months post-planting. Results: The costs with tree seedling acquisition and direct labor were the components that most impacted total costs in the three investment projects. The forest restoration investment project with tree seedlings produced in polyethylene bags was economically unfeasible in relation to other projects. Conclusions: The best economic alternative was observed in the investment project with tree seedlings produced in Ellepot®, which showed a survival rate >80% after one year and the lowest total cost, production cost, and equivalent uniform annual cost.
Highlights
Natural ecosystems provide humanity with several direct and indirect benefits
The lowest total cost was observed in the investment project with tropical tree seedlings produced in Ellepot®, adjusted by Beta probability distribution model (BIC value = 1,040,374) with an average value of USD 1508.05 ha−1 and a standard deviation of 43, USD 98 ha−1
The highest total cost was obtained with tree seedlings produced in polyethylene bags, with the data adjusted through the Beta probability distribution model (BIC value = 1,199,849), with an average value of USD 2623.05 ha−1 and a standard deviation of USD 98.25 ha−1
Summary
Natural ecosystems provide humanity with several direct and indirect benefits. deforestation, followed by inappropriate use of the soil, can cause changes in the global temperature and, problems in the public health, social, and economic security of countries [1,2,3,4].In Brazil, 88.27% of the original Atlantic Forest has been lost, and only 11.73% of the original vegetation (16,377,472 ha) remains [5]. Experts in ecological restoration have discussed the cost reduction to make forest restoration financially feasible This is very important in developing countries, such as Brazil, and for smallholder farmers; economic studies do not usually consider the uncertainties in their analysis. This study aimed to analyze, under conditions of uncertainty, how tropical tree seedlings produced in polyethylene bags, polyethylene tubes, and biodegradable containers (Ellepot®) interfere with the costs of implementation and post-planting maintenance investment projects in a deforested tropical seasonal forest area in southern Brazil. Conclusions: The best economic alternative was observed in the investment project with tree seedlings produced in Ellepot®, which showed a survival rate >80% after one year and the lowest total cost, production cost, and equivalent uniform annual cost
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