Economic effects of an E-mobility scenario – input structure and energy consumption

Abstract

The development of a strong domestic market for E-mobility is given a high priority and it is counted as an impulse for the transformation towards a Green Economy in Germany. Replacing the combustion engine by alternative drives can trigger a variety of macroeconomic effects. The paper presents the results of a model-based analysis. In particular, effects on the value chain of the automotive industry and the demand for consumer goods are explicitly modelled. An E-mobility scenario that meets the six million E-vehicles by a 2030 target is compared with a reference scenario. Assuming a substitution of inputs within the automotive industry by inputs from the electrical engineering sector, negative effects in vehicle production are offset by positive effects in energy technology production. For the macroeconomic effects, the development of imports and exports is crucial. In the scenario comparison presented here, short- to medium-term employment effects are slightly positive.