ECONOMIC AND MATHEMATICAL MODELING OF THE RESULTS OF MEASURES TO ENSURE TRAFFIC SAFETY ON RAIL TRANSPORT

Abstract

Goal. The purpose of the work is to develop a scientific and methodological approach to predicting the number of transport events and money assessment of losses from them, which will allow to determine the economic effect of ensuring traffic safety on rail transport and evaluate their economic efficiency based on risk-oriented approach. Method. The effectiveness of investments is defined as the ratio of the effect of investment. For quantitative assessment of the level of train safety, this level is considered in a reverse risk level associated with the movement of trains. Therefore, the quantitative assessment of an increase in security can be defined as a decrease in the level of risk associated with the movement of trains. The level of elementary risk can be evaluated in cash as a product probability to occur an appropriate event and the losses that it may cause. The risk associated with the movement of trains may be determined based on the probability of transport events and mathematical expectations of losses from the onset of transport events. The results. The methodical approach to modeling the number of transport events based on the theory of reliability of technical systems has been developed, as well as approaches to determining the monetary estimates of transport events by their types. The indicated results have signs of scientific novelty.