Dynamics of the natural movement of the population as a threat to the demographic security of Russia

Abstract

This article examines the retrospective dynamics of the natural movement of the population of the Russian Federation from the perspective of achieving demographic security of the country. The purpose of the work is to analyze the indicator of natural population growth/decline through economic demography and social demography to identify the impact of socio-economic conditions on demographic processes and the impact of demographic factors of changes in the natural movement of the population on socio-economic dynamics. To achieve this goal, Family and Demography Center of the Tatarstan Academy of Sciences, with the direct participation of the authors, conducted a monitoring study of demographic processes (natural population growth/ decline, fertility and mortality) for the period from 2000 to 2020 within the framework of the preparation of the Demographic Report-2021 "Retrospectives and prospects of reproduction of the population of the Republic of Tatarstan (2000-2020)", which made it possible to analyze the dynamics of these demographic processes. The Russian Federation is in a demographic crisis, which is characterized by depopulation, when mortality exceeds fertility, which is especially aggravated due to the spread of the COV1D-19. Changes in the natural movement of the population are largely determined by changes in the sex and age structure of the population: a decrease in the number of women of reproductive age, increased mortality of men of working age, aging of the population. 1n the course of work on the article, the results of the sociological study "Demographic Well-Being of Russia", conducted in 2020 with the participation of the authors of the article, as well as regression and correlation analysis were used to identify the relationship between variables. The results obtained indicate the relationship between natural population decline and economic processes. The negative consequences are connected with a reduction in the labor force, aging of the population, deterioration of public health, etc. The results of the study are of practical value for the development of an effective demographic policy of the Russia.