Dynamics of ethnic and language groups in Ukraine since 1959 and evaluation for 2021

Abstract

Ukraine is the only one of the European countries of the near abroad that has conducted only one population census in the post-Soviet period. And that was more than twenty years ago. Related to this is the problem of studying ethno-demographic processes in the period after the collapse of the Soviet Union. The problem can be solved only by relying on the methods of ethno-demographic forecasting. The aim of the study is to identify the features of the dynamics of the most numerous ethnic and linguistic groups on the territory of Ukraine in the period from 1959, as well as to estimate their numbers up to 2021. According to the dynamics of the number in the Soviet and post-Soviet periods, the ethnic communities of Ukraine were divided into two main groups. The first group consists of Ukrainians, Russians, Belarusians and Moldovans, whose numbers grew in the Soviet period and decreased in the post-Soviet period. The second group is formed by Jews, Poles, as well as a number of other peoples, whose numbers decreased throughout the entire interval under study. The main scenario of ethno-demographic dynamics up to 2021 assumes the course of assimilation processes (or “titleization” of the population) in the period after the 2001 census, similar to the period from 1989 to 2001. According to this scenario, the share of Russians from 1989 to 2021 within the borders of Ukraine by 2014 should decrease to 10.4 %, or more than twice (and without Crimea — to 8.6 %). In the case of the implementation of the main scenario for the native language, by 2021 the share of Russian-speakers should decrease to 24 % (almost 9 %).