Drought risk assessment considering ecosystem resilience: A case study in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain, China

Abstract

Drought caused by global warming has a profound impact on the stability of terrestrial ecosystems and agricultural production. As one of the key indicators to measure the response of ecosystems to climate change, the spatial difference of ecosystem resilience will also affect the accuracy of regional drought risk assessment. In this study, the 12-month standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI-12) was used to identify drought characteristics and combined with meteorological elements to characterize drought hazard. Drought vulnerability was characterized using crop and environmental sensitivity, disaster prevention, and mitigation capacity. Specifically, ecosystem resilience was also considered in assessing vulnerability. And drought exposure was investigated by considering crop sown area and population density. Based on this, a drought risk assessment framework was constructed using the random forest algorithm and applied to the Huang-Huai-Hai (HHH) Plain, China. The results showed that: (1) approximately 66.34 % of the HHH Plain had a drought hazard level above moderate; among them, southern Hebei, northern Anhui, northern Henan, and scattered small areas in Shandong were extreme high hazard areas. (2) The northeast Anhui, central and southern Shandong, and northeast Jiangsu were extreme high drought vulnerability areas, accounting for 10.34% of the total area. (3) The drought risk in the HHH Plain was low in the south and north, and high in the center. Among these, the drought risk in the border regions of Shandong and Anhui, the northeast part of Jiangsu, as well as central Henan were extreme high, accounting for 11.23%. (4) The drought risk assessment framework constructed by considering ecosystem resilience was more suitable for HHH Plain. This study result could provide scientific reference for managing water resources and preventing drought.