Diversification Dilemmas in Turkey’s Natural Gas Imports

Abstract

:Due to the fact that Turkey does not possess hydrocarbon resources, it largely depends on imports from other countries. Therefore, energy security and energy diversification issues are of key importance in Turkish foreign policy. Accordingly, the energy nexus is an important organizing principle in Turkish foreign relations. This article limits itself to focus on the diversification attempts in terms of source countries from where natural gas is being imported to Turkey. Energy diversification in case of Turkey might be analyzed in a dual framework. Firstly, Turkey is highly interested in diversifying its own energy – or specifically natural gas–supply. At the moment, Turkey meets nearly 58% of its total natural gas consumption from Russian gas import. There are aspirations to alter this energy status quo and geopolitical dynamics, by exploring further partnership opportunities to initiate imports of natural gas potentially from Israel, Qatar and other countries. Secondly, given the geostrategic location of the country, Turkey is a highly important actor in the energy diversification endeavors of the European Union, as it is considered as potential transit country of natural gas from third countries. After it is completed, the TANAP natural gas pipeline might become a pivotal component of European energy security and could further integrate Turkey in international energy dynamics. At the moment, the lack of adequate infrastructure is a hurdle to the diversification of Turkey’s natural gas supply. The construction of new pipelines needs complex multiparty agreements; moreover, examples from the past prove that pipeline projects might get easily suspended. Taking another possibility into account, investments in LNG capacities require very high expenditures. Therefore, this article argues that despite the aspirations, the inclusion of new countries and thus significant changes in Turkey’s current natural gas imports are rather likely to happen in the long run.