Measuring the natural gas supply security performance of China's natural gas suppliers: A comprehensive framework using FAHP-Entropy-PROOTHEE method

Abstract

The increasing dependence on foreign natural gas has brought severe challenges to China's natural gas supply security. Hence, choosing secure and reliable natural gas suppliers is crucial. This paper first proposes a comprehensive evaluation framework for the natural gas supply security of natural gas suppliers from two aspects: suppliers' own factors and the interaction factors between importers and suppliers based on the risk factors of the natural gas supply chain. On this basis, the PROOTHEE model based on the combination weight method is introduced to measure the supply security performance of China's 15 natural gas suppliers from 2015 to 2019. The results show that the supply security performance of China's natural gas suppliers varies greatly and the gap widened. Australia, Russia and the United States are the top three countries in terms of the overall supply security. Qatar, Norway, Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan, Malaysia and Uzbekistan show moderate supply security. Oman, Papua New Guinea, Trinidad and Tobago and Nigeria demonstrate poor supply security. Most suppliers have medium and low supply security and China's natural gas imports from suppliers do not match their supply security levels to some extent, which results in China's natural gas imports facing a relatively high supply risk. Considering risk controllability, China should focus more on interaction factors, especially to strengthen energy diplomacy.