Diurnal temperature range in winter wheat–growing regions of China: CMIP6 model evaluation and comparison

Abstract

Diurnal temperature range (DTR) is an important meteorological component affecting the yield and protein content of winter wheat. The accuracy of climate model simulations of DTR will directly affect the prediction of winter wheat yield and quality. Previous model evaluations for worldwide or nationwide cannot answer which model is suitable for the estimation of winter wheat yield. We evaluated the ability of the coupled model intercomparison project phase 6 (CMIP6) models to simulate DTR in the winter wheat–growing regions of China using CN05 observations. The root mean square error (RMSE) and the interannual variability skill score (IVS) were used to quantitatively evaluate the ability of models in simulating DTR spatial and temporal characteristics, and the comprehensive rating index (CRI) was used to determine the most suitable climate model for winter wheat. The results showed that the CMIP6 model can reproduce DTR in winter wheat–growing regions. BCC-CSM2-MR simulations of DTR in the winter wheat–growing season were more consistent with observations. EC-Earth3-Veg simulated the climatological DTR best in the wheat growing regions (RMSE = 0.848). Meanwhile, the evaluation for climatological DTR in China is not applicable to the evaluation of DTR in winter wheat–growing regions, and the evaluation for annual DTR is not a substitute for the evaluation of winter wheat–growing season DTR. Our study highlights the importance of evaluating winter wheat–growing regions’ DTR, which can further improve the ability of CMIP6 models simulating DTR to serve the research of climate change impact on winter wheat yield.