Abstract
The diurnal temperature range (DTR) is an important meteorological component affecting maize yield. The accuracy of climate models simulating DTR directly affects the projection of maize production. We evaluate the ability of 26 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) models to simulate DTR during 1961–2014 in maize cultivation areas with the observation (CN05.1), and project DTR under different shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios. The root mean square error (RMSE), standard deviation (SD), Kling-Gupta efficiency (KGE) and comprehensive rating index (CRI) are used in the evaluation of the optimal model. The results show that CMIP6 models can generally reproduce the spatial distribution. The reproducibility of the annual average DTR in the maize cultivation areas is better than that in China but lower for the maize-growing season. The optimal model (EC-Earth3-Veg-LR) is used in the projection. Under the two SSPs, the DTR decreases compared with the historical period, especially in Northwest and North China. The DTR under SSP245 remains unchanged (annual) or increases slightly (growing season) during 2015–2050, while a significant decreasing trend is observed under SSP585. This highlights the importance of evaluating DTR in maize cultivation areas, which is helpful to further improve the accuracy of maize yield prediction.
Highlights
Academic Editor: Many studies have addressed the future changes in temperature and precipitation under a climate change background [1,2,3]
The diurnal temperature range (DTR) was calculated as the difference between the maximum and minimum near-surface temperature during a 24 h period simulated by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) models in this study
standard deviation (SD) of simulations in NEC and TP were approximately 2 ◦ C higher than those in other regions, and there were significant differences between models. These results indicated that the CMIP6 models have good simulation capability in eastern China
Summary
Academic Editor: Many studies have addressed the future changes in temperature and precipitation under a climate change background [1,2,3]. These studies have provided a solid basis for assessing the risk of climate change to human health, agriculture, natural resources, water resources, etc. Air temperature is one of the main factors affecting maize growth and production, and maize showed a greater yield decrease than wheat and rice at the same warming level [6,7]. The diurnal temperature difference (DTR) plays an important role in maize yield. DTR is defined as the difference between the maximum and minimum
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