Abstract
Analyzing issue cycles usually begins with observing selected events and then tracking the course of media coverage. This approach collapses when the events of interest are hidden, overlain, or even distorted by extensive coverage of other events. One such complicated case is news about terrorism in Africa. While previous studies have started from single media hypes, we propose modeling the general pattern of such issue cycles with distributed lag models on a large-scale data basis. In order to assess the utility of distributed lag models, two basic principles of issue cycles are derived from theory and empirically tested. Furthermore, using the Global Database of Events, Language, and Tone, we evaluate the usefulness of automated methods for news research. Although the data are quite noisy, automated content analysis combined with distributed lag models is a promising approach for studying issue cycles. The model can be used to visualize issue cycles. In the case of news about terrorism in Africa, we found a sudden increase in coverage, followed by a second local maximum after a few weeks.
Highlights
Analyzing issue cycles usually begins with observing selected events and tracking the course of media coverage
In 2016, one-sided violence occurred in 19 African countries, events that were distributed over 218 days of the year (Uppsala Conflict Data Program [UCDP], 2016; see analysis below)
We explore a method for distilling the issue cycle of terrorism from a large database covering all the countries on the African continent
Summary
Analyzing issue cycles usually begins with observing selected events and tracking the course of media coverage. Despite the continuous coverage, some events stand out as extraordinary, and some topics are of special interest This is where the analysis of issue cycles starts. Further countries with terrorist events on at least 14 days of the year include Cameroon, the Central African Republic, Ethiopia, Somalia, South Sudan, and Sudan (UCDP, 2016) Under these conditions, day-to-day violence is barely surprising enough to trigger notable media storms, waves, or hypes. An analysis of news values needs to be complemented with study of the regional African media This further challenges the analysis of issue cycles because the media landscape in Africa is quite complex (Brune, 2013)—according to the Freedom in the World report, only 18% of all African countries had a free press in 2016 Theory development in this area has been enriched by research on the CNN effect, and blind spots have been identified (Gilboa et al, 2016, p. 663)
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