Abstract
As many regions along the Belt and Road have long been struggling with terrorist attacks, crimes, wars, and corruption, political risks pose important challenges for infrastructure projects and transnational investment. The objective of the article is to contribute to the identification of different types of political risks along the Silk Road Economic Belt and 21st Century Maritime Silk Road, and the visualization of their micro-level spatial distribution based on the Global Database of Events, Language, and Tone (GDELT) datasets from October 2013 to May 2018. By adopting the bivariate Moran’s I model to compare the distribution of political risks along the Belt and Road and that of the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) investment and construction projects based on data from the China Global Investment Tracker (CGIT), the article also generates an overall political risk profile for Chinese BRI projects. Our findings show that a particularly high percentage of Chinese BRI projects are distributed in regions with high political risks. This research has important implications for the discussion and study of the BRI. First, by combining geographic spatial statistical analysis and political science conceptual frameworks, we point out the necessity to query the BRI from interdisciplinary perspectives grounded in empirical research. Second, the research delivers to researchers, academics, practitioners, consultants and policy makers interested in the BRI the latest insights into the risks and challenges along the Belt and Road. Third, it advocates policies and strategies conducive to identifying, assessing and mitigating political risks in investment along the Belt and Road and to strengthening the sustainable development of the BRI.
Highlights
In the context that the global economy had experienced a slow recovery and that the international trade and investment landscape and rules for multilateral trade had undergone important adjustments, the Chinese President Xi Jinping proposed the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in 2013
The objective of this article is to contribute to the identification of different types of political risks along the Silk Road Economic Belt and 21st Century Maritime Silk Road, and the visualization of their micro-level spatial distribution based upon the Global Database of Events, Language, and Tone (GDELT) datasets from October 2013 to May 2018
It analyzes the following two research questions: RQ1: How are different types of political risks distributed along the Belt and Road? RQ2: What is the relationship between the spatial distribution of China’s BRI investment and construction projects, and that of the political risks along the Belt and Road? It is worth noting that the BRI has already developed into a broad initiative that is open to all nations and is not limited by geographic boundaries
Summary
In the context that the global economy had experienced a slow recovery and that the international trade and investment landscape and rules for multilateral trade had undergone important adjustments, the Chinese President Xi Jinping proposed the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in 2013. The objective of this article is to contribute to the identification of different types of political risks along the Silk Road Economic Belt and 21st Century Maritime Silk Road, and the visualization of their micro-level spatial distribution based upon the Global Database of Events, Language, and Tone (GDELT) datasets from October 2013 to May 2018 In doing so, it analyzes the following two research questions: RQ1: How are different types of political risks distributed along the Belt and Road? One contribution of this research is to provide a comprehensive assessment of the political risks along the Belt and Road, including political instability, social unrest, lack of democracy, and external conflict Another contribution is that this study uses big datasets and spatial statistical methods, which enable the visualization of multifarious political risks at the micro-level scale, and provide a new quantitative analysis model to examine the political risk profile of China’s BRI projects.
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