Directional policy matrix and cloud model: Theory and application in the evaluation of city-water interaction

Abstract

The evolution direction of the relationship between city and water determines the healthy prosperity and sustainable development of a city. Scientific evaluation of the matching relationship between water resources and social economy in different cities is the key to analyze the interaction relationship between city and water. Current research on sustainable evaluation of complex systems is dominated by one-dimensional static evaluation, which cannot help find gaps and predict development. Insufficient analysis of the city-water relationship reduces the reference and foresight of policy making. Moreover, conventional methods cannot overcome the uncertainty of the evaluation process. Therefore, this paper constructs a coordinated evaluation model based on directional policy matrix and cloud model, and categorizes cities in different development stages and water resources conditions into the matrix. Based on the analysis of the sources of contradictions in the relationship between city and water for three types of cities, such as cooperative interaction, competitive interaction and conflict interaction, water resources utilization policy and urban development strategy are adjusted accordingly. According to the evaluation results, the single system of the city, such as water resource carrying capacity or economic society level, has a positive development. However, from the point of view of the matching degree of the composite system, the interaction between city and water in most cities is not friendly. Among the cities, leading cities (Guangzhou, Shanghai, Wuhan) and robust cities (Chongqing, Chengdu) have a healthy match between water resources and social economy, and the relationship between city and water is cooperative. In driving cities (Beijing, Tianjin) and restrictive cities (Zhengzhou, Xi 'an), water resources and social economy do not match, and the relationship between city and water exists competition or even conflict. Based on the contradictions of different types of cities, the system in need of improvement and vulnerability indicators, water resources policy and economic society strategy recommendations are given to ensure sustainable development.