Direct and spillover effects of new-type urbanization on CO2 emissions from central heating sector and EKC analyses: Evidence from 144 cities in China

Abstract

The new-type urbanization which emphasizes urban infrastructure improvement, together with neighboring cities, may influence CO2 emissions of urban facilities and energy-intensive industrial sectors. This study analyzes the spillover effects of new-type urbanization on CO2 emissions of the central heating sector in northern China during 2012–2019. We measured the new-type urbanization from six dimensions, then built three spatial Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) models based on an extended stochastic impact by regression on population, affluence, and technology (STIRPAT) framework. Our results show that CO2 emissions at the city level increased by 18.0% for every 1% increase in that city's own new-type urbanization level, while decreasing by 7.58% for every 1% rise in the average new-type urbanization level of its neighboring cities. The results indicate an inverted “U-shaped” relationship between new-type urbanization and CO2 emissions, and the peak will be earlier due to the spillover effects of urbanization at the city level.