Abstract

Adaptations of Abies nordmanniana, Picea orientalis, Pinus sylvestris, Fagus orientalis, and Carpinus betulus to the abiotic environmental conditions of the study area largely determined their predicted distribution in the Caucasus. The ecological niches of the species mostly coincided in two analyzed complex environmental factors (characteristics of water regime and topographic parameters). The complex humidity factor was the main factor determining the potential distribution the forest-forming species in the Caucasus (65% of the contribution in the Maxent models). Topographic ENVIREM predictors were also significant in the species distribution (20% of the contribution in the models). Abies nordmanniana and Fagus orientalis were the most sensitive to the humidity factor, while Pinus sylvestris depended largely on the topographic factors. The similarity of the distribution potential of the studied species in the Caucasus was explained largely by a high degree of overlap of ecological niches (Schoener’s D = 0.55-0.79) and their visual overlap in the orthogonal space of the analyzed ecological factors. The largest Schoener’s D indexes were observed for the pairs Pinus sylvestris – Picea orientalis, Abies nordmanniana – Picea orientalis, Fagus orientalis – Picea orientalis, and Fagus orientalis – Carpinus betulus. Carpinus betulus, Fagus orientalis and Pinus sylvestris had the widest ecological niches.

Highlights

  • Identification of the main factors affecting the distribution of forest-forming tree species is important for understanding the general patterns of their spatial distribution, identification and protection of the most vulnerable areas, forest management and rational use of forest resources

  • We studied monodominant highly productive forest stands of Abies nordmanniana, Picea orientalis, Pinus sylvestris, Fagus orientalis, and Carpinus betulus, as the most stable plant communities existing under optimal environmental conditions for the species

  • We revealed a significant effect of the humidity and topographic complex factors on the distribution of Abies nordmanniana, Picea orientalis, Fagus orientalis, Carpinus betulus and Pinus sylvestris, Fagus orientalis, Picea orientalis, Carpinus betulus, respectively

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Summary

Introduction

Identification of the main factors affecting the distribution of forest-forming tree species is important for understanding the general patterns of their spatial distribution, identification and protection of the most vulnerable areas, forest management and rational use of forest resources. Significant progress in this direction was closely related to the methods of modeling the potential suitability of habitats, such as Ecological niche modeling (ENM). ENM methods are the most effective for estimating the species spatial and temporal distribution [1, 2] These methods aim to identify the abiotic and biotic components of the species ecological niches, thereby determining the spatial distribution of suitable habitats for the species [3, 4]. The habitats identified with the highest probability of species occurrence are considered the most suitable

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