Northwest Caucasus forest spreading evaluation by GIS modeling and historical and geographic data analysis

Abstract

The article presents the results of the GIS modeling of the potential areas of the Northwest Caucasus coniferous and broad leaved forest stand dominants (Abies nordmanniana, Carpinus betulus, Fagus orientalis, Picea orientalis, Quercus species). The constructed models demonstrate the significantly wider potential areas of these species as compared with the real ones and the almost complete coincidence of the potential areas of dark coniferous tree species A. nordmanniana and P. orientalis. The precipitation parameter in the driest month of the year, altitude above the sea level and temperature seasonality make the greatest contribution to the construction of GIS models of the modern area of the dark coniferous and broad leaved tree species. The analysis of the materials on the natural resource management history demonstrated that it is not the climatic changes, but the anthropogenic changes, that has been the main cause of the reduction of the area of the coniferous-broad leaved forests of the Northwest Caucasus since the middle of the 19th century. The northern boundary of the forest belt has shifted significantly from the plains and foothills to the foothill and mountain areas as a result of the economic and military development of the area.