Abstract
The objective of the CONFIDENCE project has been to identify, assess and communicate the uncertainties that arise in managing and recovering from a nuclear accident. To do that, it is important to be clear on what uncertainty means, how it arises and how we might analyse it. In fact, there are many forms of uncertainty, some of which we can assess with current tools, but some of which are more nebulous and difficult to deal with. Nonetheless, all need to be communicated to the emergency managers. Starting with a review of different categories of uncertainties, and using examples from the CONFIDENCE project, this paper discusses how the various uncertainties are manifested in nuclear emergency management. It concludes with a simple framework for categorising and analysing them. The overall intention is that such a framework could contribute to a broader discussion on identifying and handling uncertainties with nuclear emergency management actors
Highlights
Emergencies inevitably involve uncertainties; threatened or actual offsite releases of radiation from nuclear facilities are no exceptions
Starting with a review of different categories of uncertainties, and using examples from the CONFIDENCE project, this paper discusses how the various uncertainties are manifested in nuclear emergency management
The third relates to uncertainties that the emergency managers, experts and stakeholders hold about themselves, their values and responsibilities and how to account for these differences in decision-making
Summary
Emergencies inevitably involve uncertainties; threatened or actual offsite releases of radiation from nuclear facilities are no exceptions. Additional uncertainties enter into dose predictions from external dose or via food chains, and the effectiveness of countermeasures and their implementation including public compliance increases the uncertainty further (Howard et al, 2005; Nisbet et al, 2005). These are only some of the uncertainties faced by emergency managers and recovery teams in responding to a nuclear accident. Many uncertainties need to be addressed in the decision making. We believe that we need to be clearer in our understanding and communication of uncertainties if we are to support emergency managers in their tasks and decision making
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