Abstract
The paper aims to stimulate reflection and debate on the issue of uncertainty as a key component of nuclear or radiological emergency management. It identifies and discusses different types of uncertainties that appeared during and after real emergencies. For this, seven different case studies of nuclear and radiological events have been analysed using three separate methodological approaches: i) case descriptions (document review); ii) media analysis; and iii) semi-structured interviews. The overall objective was to elucidate the understanding and response to scientific and social uncertainties, and related ethical issues. A range of different uncertainties were identified and roughly grouped into categories related to: 1) technical and measurement uncertainties; 2) societal impacts and societal framing; 3) contradictory information and communication aspects; 4) ethical aspects. This analysis intends to inform emergency managers on the types of uncertainties that may appear to different actors during nuclear or radiological emergency. The results should serve to stimulate preparation on the uncertainty response and by this also to reduce some of the identified uncertainties.
Highlights
Nuclear and radiological emergencies are inherently very complex; they are urgent, full of contingencies (Leonard and Howitt, 2008), unanticipated, dynamic and unpredictable (Schmid, 2013; Charron et al, 2016), involve a great number of actors and experts (Marignac et al, 2016) and influence economic, social and cultural life of people (Felt and Chhem, 2016)
Emergency and post-accident situations are affected by a variety of uncertainties that complicate decision-making and weaken effective emergency management processes
This paper presents an analysis of seven different case studies of nuclear and radiological events that took place in or affected different European countries
Summary
Nuclear and radiological emergencies are inherently very complex; they are urgent, full of contingencies (Leonard and Howitt, 2008), unanticipated, dynamic and unpredictable (Schmid, 2013; Charron et al, 2016), involve a great number of actors and experts (Marignac et al, 2016) and influence economic, social and cultural life of people (Felt and Chhem, 2016). This paper presents an analysis of seven different case studies of nuclear and radiological events that took place in or affected different European countries (Halden 2016, Norway; IRE-Fleurus 2008, Belgium; Asco 1, 2007, Spain; SocatriTricastin 2008, France, Krsko 2008, Slovenia) together with a retrospective analysis of the management of uncertainties in Norway after the Chernobyl accident, and a study of citizen science after the Fukushima accident. The aim of this analysis was to elucidate the understanding and response to scientific and social uncertainties in past incidents and accidents, as well as the related ethical issues
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