Dicotomias fiscais e distributivas dos ciclos político-orçamentários: análise da reserva de contingência nos municípios brasileiros

Abstract

The present study aimed to verify the level of adequacy of the contingency reserve in the budget of Brazilian municipalities, based on the hypothesis that, in addition to fiscal use, there is political and distributive use of this mechanism in the budget process. The theory of political-budget cycles together with the literature on public finance management made it possible to develop the theme in the context of the dichotomies between fiscal rebalancing and political opportunism in the public budget. Data from the Brazilian Public Sector Accounting and Tax Information System were collected for the period from 2015 to 2019. Descriptive statistics were analyzed using the World Bank's PEFA framework, and tests of mean differences (t test of Student) of the contingency reserve rates that showed adequate use of the mechanism by the municipalities with positive fiscal results. On the other hand, the tests also allowed for opportunistic political use of the reserve, taking into account the electoral scenario. It was found that the deficient municipalities have an incremental stance in the political-budget cycles. The results bring weightings on World Bank metrics and implications for the public finance literature by showing that the opportunistic political use of the contingency reserve can hinder the fiscal balance objectified by the legislation and reduce the credibility of the budget. The findings are expected to imply future studies on the specifications of the calculation bases to be considered for the contingency reserve and for other types of budgetary provisions.