Development of New Models Using Empirical Modeling of Global Solar Radiation and Its Application in Usak City, Turkey

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With this study, 12 empirical models in the literature, 2 new models developed within the scope of this study, SARAH and CMSAF satellite-based models, COSMO and ERA5 re-analysis solar radiation data sets in the PVGIS database were compared in order to detect the monthly average global solar radiation coming to the horizontal plane of Usak province. New models developed within the scope of the study; it uses the region's temperature, cloudiness coefficient and sunset hour angle. In comparison of the datas within the scope of the study; coefficient of determination (R²), mean percent error (MPE), deviation error (MBE), root mean square error (RMSE), absolute relative error (ARE) parameters were used. As a result of the evaluations, the method that most successfully predicts the global solar radiation values of Usak province was tried to be determined. According to the monthly evaluation of the models; It was determined that 14 models and satellite-based systems have absolute relative error values below 5% in March-April-May-June, September-October and December. The most accurate estimates were realized for May in 16 of 18 different estimation methods used in the study. The coefficient of determination of empirical models and PVGIS data sets was above 0.97. When the success of the models was evaluated according to the RMSE values, It was determined that the logarithmic based Model 14 (0.90058 RMSE, 0.98327 R2, -1.079894 MPE, -0.05033 MBE, 0.185628 t) which was obtained by using the sunset hour angle and the max-min temperature difference developed within the scope of this study, made the most accurate estimations. COSMO data from spatial data (1.053134 RMSE, 0.979036 R2, -1.196348 MPE, -0.25105 MBE, 0.8141 t) made successful estimations, but the accuracy of the COSMO data was lower than the data estimated by Model 14. It was concluded that used the models and satellite-based systems were generally successful. As a result, In the studies to be carried out for the global solar radiation forecast of Usak province. It has been concluded that Model 14 developed within the scope of the study can be used in precise calculations and COSMO data from PVGIS datas can be used in more superficial or pre-feasibility studies.