Abstract
In any rainfall-runoff model, there is uncertainty associated to prediction of runoff. The stochastic integral equation method is used in this paper to represent the history of the rainfall-runoff modeling error as a convolution of model input (effective rainfall in this paper) with a frequency-distribution of transfer function realizations. In prediction, the expected runoff estimate is quantified by use of a distribution of runoff error estimates, each estimate of error based upon a previous experience using the subject rainfall-runoff model. Although this paper focuses upon a simple unit-hydrograph rainfall-runoff model, the principles discussed apply, in generality, to other rainfall-runoff model structures.
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