Abstract
Although the uncertainty in rainfall-runoff model predictions has been frequently demonstrated, little attention has been paid towards including uncertainty in rainfall-runoff models, or providing a methodology that not only accommodates the uncertainty, but can be readily integrated into most rainfall-runoff modelling structures. In this paper, the uncertainty problem is approached by providing a methodology which can be incorporated into almost all rainfall-runoff models. The methodology is based upon the standard theory of stochastic integral equations which has been successfully applied to several problems in the life sciences and chemical engineering. The stochastic integral formulation is used to represent the total variation between a record of measured runoff data and model estimates. Because of the simplicity of the technique, the stochastic integral equation method can be integrated into most currently available rainfall-runoff models. The method provides the capability to develop probability distributions of almost all criterion variable estimates as produced from almost any rainfall-runoff modelling approach.
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