Abstract
In large Polish cities like Warsaw, pedestrians constitute almost 60% of road fatalities. Although traffic safety situation in general is improving, the numbers of pedestrians hit when crossing a road have not significantly decreased over the last six years. A negative binomial model was estimated for predicting accidents at unsignalised pedestrian crossings based on accident data from 52 crossings in Warsaw. A total of 58 pedestrian accidents were recorded at these crossings during the last seven years. The model shows that the number of accidents is less-than-proportional to both pedestrian and motorised traffic daily volumes. Other risk factors affecting pedestrian safety are: higher proportion of heavy vehicles and location in a mixed land use area. The model can be used with the Empirical Bayes method for an unbiased identification of high risk locations.
Highlights
Poland has one of the highest pedestrian fatality rates in the EU, with 23 persons killed per year per million population
Statistical model given by equation (5) can be calibrated by regression assuming that the underlying probability distribution is either Poisson or negative binomial (NB)
NB model takes into considerations the problem of overdispersion [9]
Summary
Poland has one of the highest pedestrian fatality rates in the EU, with 23 persons killed per year per million population. There were 8436 pedestrian accidents in 2016 in which 868 pedestrians were killed. Pedestrian deaths constitute 28,6% of all traffic accident fatalities. Many of these accidents occur at marked pedestrian crossings – both with and without traffic signals. Pedestrian safety is the main road safety concern in large Polish cities such as Warsaw, where pedestrians constitute almost 60% of road fatalities [1,2]. A slow improvement of the safety situation has been observed since 2006. The number of pedestrians killed at road crossings has remained more or less at the same level since 2009
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