Abstract
Consequences of global warming and climate change are major threat to humans and their socio-economic activities. Agriculture of Bundelkhand region is supposed to be more vulnerable due to emerging scenario of climate change and poor socio-economic status of farming community. Many studies carried out elsewhere have shown evidence of regional temperature variability along with global climate changes. This study focuses on the temporal variability and trend in annual and seasonal temperature (1901-2012) at six locations of Bundelkhand region. The results of the analysis reveal that the annual maximum (TMax) and minimum (TMin) temperature has significantly increasing trend in all the locations in the range of 0.5 to 2.0oC 100 year-1 and 0.5 to 1.1 oC 100 year-1, respectively. Seasonal analysis revealed warming trend in both TMax (0.6-2.6oC100 year-1) and TMin (0.9 to 2.3 oC 100 year-1) during post-monsoon and winter season in all the locations. Majority of the locations showed cooling trend (0.3-1.0 oC 100 year-1), in the mean maximum and minimum temperature during monsoon season except at two locations i.e Jhansi and Banda. However, a significant positive trends (2.9 oC) in the TMin was found for the period of hundred years at Banda district during monsoon season.
Highlights
Climatic change over the last and current century has been a subject of great interest
Season based study showed that eight sites in Central Northeast India, the maximum temperature has shown rising trend of 0.008°C year-1 during monsoon season; 0.014°C year-1 during post-monsoon season and 0.008°C year-1 in the annual temperature during the period 1914–2003, while minimum temperature showed significant rising trend of 0.012°C year-1 during postmonsoon season and significant falling trend of 0.002°C year-1 during monsoon season (Subash et al 2010)
The mean annual the annual maximum (TMax) of this region varied from 31.8 to 32.6 oC being highest at Jhansi and lowest at Lalitpur with CV from 1.3% to 2.5%
Summary
Climatic change over the last and current century has been a subject of great interest. The global temperatures have increased by 0.50.6°C and it has been estimated that it would increase by 0.3-0.7°C by 2035 (Jaswal et al 2015). This is attributed to changes in radiative forcing (Thomas et al 2012) due to changes in landscape or modification of vegetation cover, surface moisture variability and anthropogenic activity. In a recent study, England et al (2014) reported that mean global air temperature remained constant since 2001, despite continuous increased concentration of green house gases into the atmosphere. Atmospheric surface temperature in India has increased in the last century by about 1°C and 1.1°C during winter and post-monsoon months, respectively (Jain and Kumar,2012). Temporal trend of long-term climatic parameters may be studied using non-parametric statistical methods (Mann, 1945; Kendall, 1955 )
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