Abstract
Rice cultivation in Madurai district, Tamil Nadu, spans distinct cropping seasons: Kar (May – Jun), Semi-dry (Jul – Aug), Samba/ Late Samba (Aug – Sep), and Navarai (Dec – Jan), each with unique weather conditions and rice varieties. This study explores the correlation between weather parameters temperature, rainfall, humidity, sunshine hours, and wind speed and rice blast disease severity from 2021 to 2023. Using multiple linear regression with ordinary least squares (OLS), the analysis achieves high predictive accuracy (R² = 0.98). Results show that the maximum temperatures correlated negatively with disease severity (r = -0.869 to -0.892), while rainfall (r = 0.768 to 0.804) and wind speed (r = 0.766 to 0.938) correlated positively during the semi-dry season. Relative humidity exhibits varying impacts across seasons. These findings underscore the importance of tailored disease management strategies, such as targeted fungicidal applications during warmer seasons and optimized water management in others. By elucidating these dynamics, the study enhances understanding of weather-disease interactions, providing actionable insights to optimize disease management and enhance crop resilience in Madurai district.
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