Detection and attribution of the start of the growing season changes in the Northern Hemisphere

Abstract

Global climate change has led to significant changes in land surface phenology. At present, research on the factors influencing the start of the growing season (SOS) mainly focuses on single factor effects, such as temperature and precipitation, ignoring the combined action of multiple factors. The impact of multiple factors on the spatial and temporal patterns of the SOS in the Northern Hemisphere is not clear, and it is necessary to combine multiple factors to quantify the degrees of influence of different factors on the SOS. Based on the GIMMS3g NDVI dataset, CRU climate data and other factor data, we used geographic detector model, random forest regression model, multiple linear regression, partial correlation analysis and Sen + Mann-Kendall trend analysis to explore the variation of the SOS in the Northern Hemisphere to reveal the main driving factors and impact threshold of 17 influencing factors on the SOS. The results showed that (1) during the past 34 years (1982–2015), the SOS in Europe and Asia mainly showed an advancing trend, whereas the SOS in North America mainly showed a delaying trend. (2) The SOS was mainly controlled by frost frequency, temperature and humidity. Increasing frost frequency inhibited the advancement of the SOS, and increasing temperature and humidity promoted the advancement of the SOS. (3) There were thresholds for the influences of the driving factors on the SOS. Outside the threshold ranges, the response mechanism of the SOS to driving factors changed. The results are important for understanding the response of the SOS to global climate change.