Abstract
Climate change is predicted to place up to one in six species at risk of extinction in coming decades, but extinction probability is likely to be influenced further by biotic interactions such as predation. We use structural equation modelling to integrate results from remote camera trapping and long-term (17–22 years) regional-scale (8000 km2) datasets on vegetation and small vertebrates (greater than 38 880 captures) to explore how biotic processes and two key abiotic drivers influence the structure of a diverse assemblage of desert biota in central Australia. We use our models to predict how changes in rainfall and wildfire are likely to influence the cover and productivity of the dominant vegetation and the impacts of predators on their primary rodent prey over a 100-year timeframe. Our results show that, while vegetation cover may decline due to climate change, the strongest negative effect on prey populations in this desert system is top-down suppression from introduced predators.
Highlights
Interactions among species are crucial for ecosystem functioning and for maintaining biological diversity [1,2]
Seven pathways in our a priori model were not significant; spinifex cover was not associated with reptile captures, mulgara captures were not associated with rodent numbers or year since wildfire, and the spinifex seed index was not associated with eight-month cumulative rainfall
Prey population phase was not associated with feral cat abundance, and there was no direct effect of dingoes on red foxes
Summary
Interactions among species are crucial for ecosystem functioning and for maintaining biological diversity [1,2]. They drive the dynamics of species populations and key processes such as nutrient cycling, and facilitate plant–pollinator networks and predator–prey relationships. Interactions can occur locally between pairs of species, and may exhibit complex nonlinear dynamics across multiple scales [3]. Species interactions can be modified by climate [4,5], with recent work suggesting that one species in six is at risk of extinction.
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