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Abstract
Demonstrating Effects of Current and Projected Rainfall Characteristics on Wheat yield has been investigated in Sinana district for the period 1995-2016. Data on rainfall and crop yield for the period 1995-2016 were obtained from National Meteorological Agency and Sinana District Agricultural Offices, respectively. Following data quality checking, rainfall data (current and future), correlation and regression studies were analyzed using Statistical software like Instat V3.36 and SPSS V20. Downscaling the output of CSIRO-Mk3.6.0 GCM model (daily rainfall data) for RCP8.5 emission scenario using a web based software tool (Marksim GCM) for the period 2020-2049 were used to determine seasonal total rainfall and ascertain its impact on yield. This study used mean, coefficient of variation, correlation and regression analysis to ascertain the relation, cause and effect relationship between rainfall characteristics and wheat yields. The results indicated that the mean onset date of the main rainy season (JJAS) for Robe and Sinana station was June 30 and July 3. Furthermore, the results of Pearson Correlation Coefficients indicated that kiremt rainfall total (JJAS) had moderate positive relationship (r = 0.499) with wheat yield in the study area. It was also observed that nearly fifty percent of total variance of crop yield is explained jointly by kiremt rainfall total and rainy day (R2 value was 47.9%). The result of projected wheat yield indicated that there will be a slight decrease in wheat yield (qt/ha) after 2030 years due to the impact of expected weakening of kiremt rainfall total. Taking in to account the above findings, it could be suggested that the farmers’ community will be encouraged encouraged to utilize timely climate information issued from National Meteorological Agency of Ethiopia (NMA) and other centers for farm level decision to enhance their crop production.
Highlights
Climate variability has always been identified as a challenge for African farmers
Onset date of the rainy season (r = −0.107), end date of the rainy season (r = −0.262), kiremt rainy day (r = −0.316) and duration (r = −0.144) had negatively weak correlation with wheat yield, respectively. In line with this result on national level [9] reported that among the rainfall characteristics studied, kiremt rainfall total had better with the value of low to moderate correlation with wheat yield
This study was undertaken to investigate the relationship of wheat yield and rainfall characteristics using global circulation model output and ascertain its impact on wheat yield
Summary
Climate variability has always been identified as a challenge for African farmers. it is a challenge to access climate information relevant to agricultural activities that enable the farmers to make prior decision about which crops to plant, where and when, will increase the ability of the agricultural sector to make informed decision [1]. Studies in Ethiopia have shown that rainfall variability, unreliable occurrences in sufficient amount and delay in onset dates contribute to decline in crop yields with a reasonable amount in almost all parts of the country [2]. Rainfall variability has historically been found as a major cause of food insecurity and famine in the country [3]. This is clearly due to the fact that the agricultural sector is facing increased and continued risks of climate change. Previous studies have shown that [10] and [11], the major causes for low productivity of the agricultural sector are traditional farming practice, low adaptive capacity, lack of awareness and climate related risks management. In order to change large-scale GCM output to a finer spatial resolution downscaling techniques must be applied to establish empirical relationships between
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