Abstract

Rainfall data and barley production of Sinana district, South East Ethiopia for the period 1995-2016 were used to analyze influence of rainfall features on barley yield using correlation and regression techniques. Downscaled output of CSIRO-Mk3.6.0 GCM model for RCP 8.5 emission scenario for the period 2020-2049 were used to determine future rainfall and to ascertain its impact on barley yield. Sixrainfall characteristics viz. onset date, end date, length of growing season, seasonal (June-September, kiremt) rainfall, and total annual rainfall were analysed. Kiremt (JJAS) contributes 37 per cent of annual rainfall and varied between 271.4 mm and 854.0 mm during the study period with coefficient of variation (CV) of 43 per cent. The barley yield was found to vary between 14.79qha-1and 35.84qha-1 with CV of 27.9 per cent during the same period. The results indicated that among all the rainfall features studied, the kiremt rainfall had strong positive relationship (r = 0.668**) with barley yield and explained nearly 45 per cent of total variance in the yield. Under future climatic scenario during 2020-2049 period, the projected rainfall is going to be less than the mean rainfall that may cause reduction in barley yield by 1.8 to 4.4 per cent in Sinana district.

Highlights

  • Climate variability has always been identified as a challenge for African farmers

  • Studies in Ethiopia have shown that rainfall variability, unreliable occurrences in sufficient amount and delay in onset dates contribute to decline in crop yields with reasonable amount in almost all parts of the country (Godswill et al, 2007)

  • The mean onset date for Sinana meteorological stations is July 3 with coefficient of variation (CV) of 14.1 per cent which agree with Segele and Lamb (2005) who had reported the mean date for the onset of the main rainy season for Robe and the surrounding including Sinanaas 1stJuly

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Summary

MATERIALAND METHODS

Barley production data for the period1995-2016 were obtained from Sinana District Agricultural Offices (SDAO) for the Kiremt season (JJAS). Future rainfall data (2020-2049) for Sinana meteorological sites were downscaled from CSIRO-Mk 3.6.0 AtmosphereOcean GCM for RCP 8.5 emission scenarios of IPCC-AR5 using a web based software tool In determining the end date, 3.4 mmday-1 evapotranspiration of the study site and 100 mmm-1 of the plant available soil water were considered. The duration of the rainy season was determined by counting the number of rainy days between the onset and the end date of the rainy season in a given time for the study area. The number of rainy days was determined by counting the days having at least 0.3 mm of rainfall in 24 hours period. Coefficients of multiple determinations (R2) were used to select the best model. The selected model was used to ascertain the impact of future rainfall variability on barleyyields, using projected rainfall for 2020-2049 period

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
Annual rainfall
CONCLUSION
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