Abstract
Abstract This study aims to investigate the spatio-temporal variability and trends in climate and its implications for rainfed agriculture in the Rib watershed, north-western highland Ethiopia from 1986 to 2050. The daily rainfall and temperature records for the period 1986–2017 were used to detect the variability and trends of the current climate using the coefficient of variation, precipitation concentration index, Mann–Kendall test, and Sen's slope estimator. On the other hand, future climate changes (2018–2050) were analyzed based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project version 5 (CMIP5) model outputs under under two representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios, RCP 4.5 and 8.5. The results showed high inter-seasonal and inter-annual variability of rainfall and temperature in the studied watershed over the last four decades. The annual and Kiremt (June–September) rainfall showed a generally increasing trend, while the Belg (March–May) rainfall exhibited a decreasing trend between 1986 and 2017. Conversely, the minimum, maximum and mean temperature demonstrated increasing trends over the study period although most of the detected trends were statistically insignificant at 5 and 10% level of significance. Future climate analysis results showed an increase in future temperature and annual and Kiremt rainfall while Belg rainfall declined.
Highlights
The world’s climate has been changing for several thousands of years with a widespread impact on human and natural systems (Kotir ; Marohasy et al ; Birara et al ; Yadav )
Birara et al ( ) found high irregularities in Belg rainfall distribution compared to Kiremt rainfall in the Tana basin region of Ethiopia
This study has presented a detailed analysis of the current and future rainfall and temperature variability and trends in the Rib watershed, north-western highland Ethiopia
Summary
The world’s climate has been changing for several thousands of years with a widespread impact on human and natural systems (Kotir ; Marohasy et al ; Birara et al ; Yadav ). Climate change is global in its extent and impacts, Africa has been identified as the most vulnerable continent to climate change due to low adaptive capacity and high reliance on climate-sensitive sectors such as rain-fed agriculture (Conway & Schipper ; Kotir ; Calzadilla et al ; Gebrechorkos et al ; Girvetz et al ). Rainfall variability and warming of temperature are being perceived as the two most important variables of climate change, imposing a crippling effect on the productivity of the agricultural sector and sustainable economic development in Africa, in sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries (Carter & Parker ; Conway & Schipper ; Calzadilla et al ; Serdeczny et al ; Abera et al ; Asfaw et al ; Gebrechorkos et al ). Any change in the amount and distribution of rainfall would severely threaten agricultural productivity, and have immediate implications for food production and security across the country
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