Demographic Trends in Albania for Social-economic Development After 1990

Abstract

The paper evaluates the latest demographic trends in Albania for the socio-economic development of the space for the period 1990 - 2031. These indicators are calculated in terms of the existence of migration (Albania is a typical case), where the net migration rate is taken into account. The design methodology is presented on fertility, mortality and migration, which are combined in three scenarios of population change at the national level. The medium growth scenario is then regionalized and differentiated into three internal migration scenarios for projecting the population of Albania's counties. Forecasts at the national level are described and analyzed through the future demographic changes in Albania. In addition to the decline in birth and death rates, the population structure of Albania after the 1990s has been strongly influenced by the component processes of continuous emigration. The paper estimates that the population aging indicators would be up to 4% - 5% lower, if the emigration process was limited and controlled. From the analysis of statistical indicators, it is noted that, throughout the period from 2001 to the projection of 2031, the average annual growth of the population is estimated to be negative (-0.7%), while the annual growth of the population over the age of 65 is estimated to be positive ( +0.5%). In order to slow down the phenomenon of the aging population of Albania and to mitigate the negative consequences of this aging, the drafting and elaboration of rigorous and continuous immigration and family policies is recommended.