Abstract
Demographic stochasticity comes from the fact that individuals go through life cycle transitions in a random manner; it is therefore inherent in any demographic process, regardless of the environment. Under demographic uncertainty, populations can always become extinct and the probability of extinction depends on population size and structure. For small populations this uncertainty, can be an important cause of extinction. From a typical passerine life cycle graph, a practical study is conducted using the uLm computer program. A two-sex model with mating system is built and extinction probabilities are computed via Monte Carlo simulation. It is found that demographic stochasticity imposes high extinction probabilities on short-lived bird species and that the mating system is a major determinant of the survival of small populations.
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