Abstract
Populations suffer two types of stochasticity: demographic stochasticity, from sampling error in offspring number, and environmental stochasticity, from temporal variation in the growth rate. By modelling evolution through phenotypic selection following an abrupt environmental change, we investigate how genetic and demographic dynamics, as well as effects on population survival of the genetic variance and of the strength of stabilizing selection, differ under the two types of stochasticity. We show that population survival probability declines sharply with stronger stabilizing selection under demographic stochasticity, but declines more continuously when environmental stochasticity is strengthened. However, the genetic variance that confers the highest population survival probability differs little under demographic and environmental stochasticity. Since the influence of demographic stochasticity is stronger when population size is smaller, a slow initial decline of genetic variance, which allows quicker evolution, is important for population persistence. In contrast, the influence of environmental stochasticity is population-size-independent, so higher initial fitness becomes important for survival under strong environmental stochasticity. The two types of stochasticity interact in a more than multiplicative way in reducing the population survival probability. Our work suggests the importance of explicitly distinguishing and measuring the forms of stochasticity during evolutionary rescue.
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