Demographic Stochasticity and Social Mating System in the Process of Extinction of Small Populations: The Case of Passerines Introduced to New Zealand.

Abstract

Underlying the many causes of extinction of small populations is the random fate of each constituent individual or, in other words, demographic stochasticity. Demographic stochasticity is inherent to any demographic process, regardless of the environment, and its strength increases as population size gets smaller. In particular, random fluctuations in the proportion of males and females and the way they pair for reproduction (i.e., the social mating system) are usually neglected. To assess the potential importance of demographic stochasticity to the extinction process, a two-sex model with an explicit mating system was built. Extinction probabilities computed via Monte Carlo simulation were compared to real data, the case of passerines introduced to New Zealand a century ago. This minimal model of extinction allowed assessment of the importance of the mating system in the colonization process. Monogamous mating led to a higher extinction risk than did polygynous mating. Demographic uncertainty imposes high extinction probabilities on short-lived bird species as compared to long-lived bird species. Theoretical results for two-sex models are provided.