Defining high-detail hazard maps by a cellular automata approach: application to Mount Etna (Italy)

Boris Behncke Boris Behncke,Valeria Lupiano Valeria Lupiano,William Spataro William Spataro,Donato D’ambrosio Donato D’Ambrosio,Marco Neri Marco Neri,Salvatore Di Gregorio Salvatore Di Gregorio,Maria Vittoria Maria Vittoria,Rocco Rongo Rocco Rongo,Gino M Gino M

doi:10.4401/ag-5340

Boris Behncke Boris Behncke, Valeria Lupiano Valeria Lupiano + Show 7 more

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.4401/ag-5340

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Abstract

The individuation of areas that are more likely to be affected by new events in volcanic regions is of fundamental relevance for the mitigation of the possible consequences, both in terms of loss of human life and material properties. Here, we describe a methodology for defining flexible high-detail lava-hazard maps and a technique for the validation of the results obtained. The methodology relies on: (i) an accurate analysis of the past behavior of the volcano; (ii) a new version of the SCIARA model for lava-flow simulation (based on the macroscopic cellular automata paradigm); and (iii) high-performance parallel computing for increasing computational efficiency. The new release of the SCIARA model introduces a Bingham-like rheology as part of the minimization algorithm of the differences for the determination of outflows from a generic cell, and an improved approach to lava cooling. The method is here applied to Mount Etna, the most active volcano in Europe, and applications to land-use planning and hazard mitigation are presented.

Highlights

Many volcanic areas around the World are densely populated and urbanized
Concluding remarks The macroscopic SCIARA model has here been fruitfully applied to derive a detailed lava-flow hazard map of Mount Etna that can be used for land-use planning and civil-defense purposes
The database of lava flow simulations presented is embedded in a geographic information system environment that allows the retrieval of specific scenarios at any time, and that constitutes a fundamental tool for landuse planning and in quantifying the impact of imminent eruptions and the efficiency of protective measures

Summary

Introduction

Many volcanic areas around the World are densely populated and urbanized. In Italy, Mount Etna is home to approximately one million people, even though it is the most active volcano in Europe [Behncke and Neri 2003a]. In 2001, the path of the lava flow from an eruption that threatened the town of Nicolosi on Mount Etna was correctly predicted using a lavaflow simulation model [Crisci et al 2004], which provided useful information to the Civil Defense authorities.

Results

Conclusion