Retrospective validation of a lava-flow hazard map for Mount Etna volcano

Annamaria Vicari Annamaria Vicari,Annalisa Cappello Annalisa Cappello,Ciro Del Negro Ciro Del Negro

doi:10.4401/ag-5345

Annamaria Vicari Annamaria Vicari, Annalisa Cappello Annalisa Cappello + Show 1 more

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https://doi.org/10.4401/ag-5345

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Abstract

This report presents a retrospective methodology to validate a long-term hazard map related to lava-flow invasion at Mount Etna, the most active volcano in Europe. A lava-flow hazard map provides the probability that a specific point will be affected by potential destructive volcanic processes over the time period considered. We constructed this lava-flow hazard map for Mount Etna volcano through the identification of the emission regions with the highest probabilities of eruptive vents and through characterization of the event types for the numerical simulations and the computation of the eruptive probabilities. Numerical simulations of lava-flow paths were carried out using the MAGFLOW cellular automata model. To validate the methodology developed, a hazard map was built by considering only the eruptions that occurred at Mount Etna before 1981. On the basis of the probability of coverage by lava flows, the map was divided into ten classes, and two fitting scores were calculated to measure the overlap between the hazard classes and the actual shapes of the lava flows that occurred after 1981.

Highlights

Mount Etna in Sicily (Italy) is the largest active volcano in Europe
They are usually very useful to identify regions that are differently ranked based on the probability that they will be affected by a specific volcanic event over a specific time period
For lava-flow invasion, several hazard maps have already been suggested for Mount Etna volcano, most of which derived from quantitative analysis of past eruptions [Andronico and Lodato 2005, Behncke et al 2005]

Summary

Introduction

Mount Etna in Sicily (Italy) is the largest active volcano in Europe. Over the last 400 years, it has erupted over sixty times from vents on its flanks, while the eruptive activity at its summit has been nearly continuous. For lava-flow invasion, several hazard maps have already been suggested for Mount Etna volcano, most of which derived from quantitative analysis of past eruptions [Andronico and Lodato 2005, Behncke et al 2005].

Results

Conclusion