De-extinction potential under climate change: Extensive mismatch between historic and future habitat suitability for three candidate birds

Abstract

De-extinction is becoming potentially feasible for restoring extinct species in the wild, but research is required to determine the likelihood of success in light of contemporary and future environmental change. We assessed 1900–2100 change in suitable climate and land cover in the historic range of Carolina parakeet (Conuropsis carolinensis), ivory-billed woodpecker (Campephilus principalis) and passenger pigeon (Ectopistes migratorius), in North America. Parakeet and woodpecker historic range currently remains climatically-favourable, but intensified land use has broadly reduced habitat in contemporary landscapes. For passenger pigeon, more substantive loss in climate and land cover suitability exists in both the historic full range and primary breeding range. Long-term climate and land cover projections suggest that improved habitat suitability and increased potential future distribution outside historic ranges are likely for each de-extinction candidate. While such changes could improve probability of success for de-extinction programs, extensive mismatch between historic and future habitat suitability highlights the potential risks of reviving species that may colonize novel geographic space. To date, potential long-term negative effects of de-extinction programs to ecosystems outside historic ranges have not been elucidated, making this a priority concern for any serious proposal. To address whether benefits of reinstating extinct species to historic ecosystems outweigh risks to extant species outside their historic range will require extensive ecological, social and economic analyses that extend beyond that conducted to-date for this potentially transformational conservation tool.