Present and future suitable habitat for the black-tailed prairie dog ecosystem

Abstract

The black-tailed prairie dog (BTPD) ecosystem is an important component of North America's Central Grasslands, which are highly imperiled. Here, we develop a habitat suitability model (HSM) for the BTPD ecosystem across their historical geographic range within the United States to support conservation planning in the region. We used an ensemble HSM approach and spatial analysis combining ecological and climatic variables to quantify suitability of habitat for the black-tailed prairie dog ecosystem, both under today's current climate and projected into the future. We identified 20.8 million hectares of suitable grassland habitat for the black-tailed prairie dog ecosystem, indicating that large areas of quality habitat remain across the western half of their historic range. We also identified a significant northward expansion of their geographic range with future climate change scenarios, with a concomitant decline in habitat suitability across the southern Central Grasslands. Our results show that there is substantial conservation potential for the BTPD ecosystem, given the large amount of remaining available habitat, especially across the western portion of their historical range. Currently, however, we estimate that only ca. 782,521 hectares (3.8 %) of this habitat are occupied by BTPDs. The recovery of the black-tailed prairie dog ecosystem is a complex, multidimensional, socio-ecological challenge. The maps we generated in this analysis provide the basis to carry out spatial analyses that also consider the social, political, and threat landscapes and to incorporate such findings into other large-scale, multi-species conservation planning efforts being developed for the Central Grasslands of North America.