An agent‐based model determining a successful reintroduction of the extinct passenger pigeon

Abstract

AbstractThe passenger pigeon (Ectopistes migratorius) was an iconic species in eastern North America that was one of the most numerous birds in the world at the time of European colonization. Passenger pigeons went extinct in 1914 due to excessive hunting. Current research aims to de‐extinct the passenger pigeon and someday release the species into its historic range. To determine under which conditions a passenger pigeon colony could survive a reintroduction into a natural habitat, we developed an agent‐based model to simulate the population dynamics of the passenger pigeon in a number of present‐day forest environments. The model incorporates the following stochastic processes: resource distribution, reproduction, and natural death. Bioenergetics, forest composition, and other ecological values were obtained from literature. Our simulation results suggest that passenger pigeons could survive a reintroduction into a modern natural environment, but their survival can be optimized with certain release dates, sex ratios, and forest composition.Recommendations for Resource ManagersGenome engineering advancements suggest that the de‐extinction of passenger pigeons is feasible; however, the ability for passenger pigeons to live in the modern forest composition of their old habitat remains unexplored. Our model suggests the following regarding reintroduction strategies: A successful reintroduction of passenger pigeons is plausible, but sensitive to the strategy selected. Moderate deviations from optimal reintroduction strategies can greatly diminish the probability of a successful reintroduction. The optimal successful reintroduction strategy has an equal number of male and female passenger pigeons released in a dense oak‐hickory forest at the peak of the forest's masting cycle. Beyond persistence, the population growth of passenger pigeons within 10 years is at best, limited. Efforts to monitor and protect passenger pigeons during the transient phase of their reintroduction is critical.